by Stephen Milek
Every year I post my Oscar predictions to varying degrees of success. This year has been quite busy here at Milwaukee Movie Talk as we try to plan the first Milwaukee Twisted Dreams Film Festival so I am posting my predictions a little later than usual.
Again these are the movies I think will win based on who has won this award season and who has the current momentum. Since I have seen very little of the movies this year I can’t really say who I think should win.
Again these are the movies I think will win based on who has won this award season and who has the current momentum. Since I have seen very little of the movies this year I can’t really say who I think should win.
Oscar Predictions
Best Picture
Nominees
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Predicted Winner – The Revenant-
This has been one of the strangest years for Best Picture. The three big guilds (Screen Actors, Producers, and Directors) all went with different movies (Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant). And there is huge support for Mad Max: Fury Road. Early award season it looked like Spotlight would coast all the way to the Oscars but The Revenant has picked up a lot of steam. While it’s possible The Big Short and Mad Max could win at this point it doesn’t feel likely. So it’s a battle between Spotlight and The Revenant and I keep changing my mind. While I don’t usually see the BAFTA’s as a good indication of what the Oscar’s will do but after The Revenant won I felt it had the most momentum. My biggest issue going against The Revenant is that it’s not nominated for a Best Screenplay Oscar. While it’s been done before it is very rare. Another thing going against The Revenant is that The Academy is all about history and Iñárritu might not be seen as having the prestige to be the first director to direct back to back Best Picture winners. But it does have the most nominations so it was well liked by the majority of the Academy. This is one of my least confident Best Picture predictions in a long time.
Best Director
Nominees
Adam Mckay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu– The Revenant
Lenny Abramson- Room
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Predicted Winner - Alejandro González Iñárritu
Another close call but even if The Revenant doesn’t win Best Picture I think Iñárritu will get the Best Director. No one saw his vision through as much adversity as he did and I think that will get him the award.
Best Actor
Nominees
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Predicted Winner- Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
Of all the categories this year this is one of the easiest to pick. No matter what you thought of his performance everyone seems to agree this is his year to get that Oscar.
Best Actress
Nominees
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Predicted Winner- Brie Larson-Room
Not as easy as Best Actor but Brie Larson has emerges as the front runner in a very close race. With Carol getting left off the Best Picture list it makes thing a bit harder for Cate Blanchett. Jennifer Lawrence got a nomination but Joy wasn’t as well received as her previous nominations so seems unlikely she will pull out the win. Rampling is more of an unknown. Not many have seen 45 Year although those that have say it’s a great performance it’s unlikely she will get the vote. Basically comes down to Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan. Either one could take it but Larson has the edge.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Predicted Winner- Sylvester Stallone – Creed
It’s easy to say Stallone is the sentimental choice and more of a lifetime achievement award but his performance was pretty well praised. And in a category where there isn’t a big stand out it’s that sentimental vote that could put him over the top. Early awards went to Mark Rylance and he could be Stallone’s biggest competitor but I think it’s Stallone that will take it.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Predicted Winner- Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
This is a tough category. There hasn’t been a whole lot said about this category and I have only seen one out of the five movies so can’t even go on my opinion to help me. Like Best Supporting Actor there hasn’t been a real stand out. Rooney Mara got lots of love early on in Award Season but again with Carol not connecting with the Oscar members to land a Best Picture nomination it seems like Vikander has a slight edge. The other thing Vikander has going for her is her performance in Ex Machina. This award could be seen as rewarding both performances.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Winner- Spotlight
While Best Picture has become really muddled without The Big Short and The Revenant adding to the confusion Spotlight is the easy favorite in this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted Winner- The Big Short
Without Spotlight or The Revenant competing against it The Big Short is the easy favorite here.
Best Animated Film
Nominees
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted Winner- Inside Out
While early on in awards season it looked like it would be a close race between Inside Out and Anomalisa. Well it turns out Inside Out has just dominated the category and if Anomalisa wins it will be a big surprise.
Best Documentary
Nominees
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraines Fight for Freedom
Predicted Winner- Amy
Best Documentary is another category that has had two movies competing all award season long. Amy and The Look of Silence have been nominated against each other in almost every Best Documentary race and Amy has won pretty much every one.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Predicted Winner- Son of Saul
Son of Saul has dominated this category all season and some actually thought Son of Saul could get a Best Picture nomination so betting against it would be foolish.
Cinematography
Nominees
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
The Revenant
Predicted Winner- The Revenant
Emmanuel Lubezki has won Best Cinematography 2 years in a row and there is no reason to believe he won’t make it a threepeat. While there has been a backlash against The Revenant recently you cannot argue that it was one of the most beautifully filmed movies of the year. If the Academy decides that they don’t want to give it to him the third year in a row I think it will go to Roger Deakins for Sicario. After being nominated 14 times and losing to Lubezki two years in a row some might see him as due.
Production Design
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road
I realized I originally posted my predictions without picking one in this category (which leads me to believe no one reads what I post). Anyway, this is a hard category for me to figure out since I am not entirely sure what production design is. But it seems like this will be another battle between The Revenant and Mad Max. But after doing some reading it seems the amount of unique cars in Mad Max is what will give it the edge.
Costume Design
Nominees
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted Winner- Cinderella
For costumes I always go for the biggest costumes and that would be Cinderella. But Carol and The Danish Girl have are a bit more of prestige films and either one of them could win it.
Film Editing
Nominees
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner- Mad Max: Fury Road
With the second most nominations and the love of Mad Max it’s the technical awards that I think it will do well in. And one of the things that makes Mad Max work so well is the pacing which has a lot to do with the editing.
Short Film – Documentary
Nominees
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Predicted Winner- Body Team 12
For me the short films are usually a crap shoot. I actually saw Body Team 12 and loved it and it has to do with Ebola and death so it is dark documentary which is what the Oscars usually go with.
Short Film – Animated
Nominees
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
Predicted Winner- World of Tomorrow
Obviously Disney has dominated this category in years past and they have had a semi resurgence in the past couple of years with Feast and Paperman recently winning. But Sanjay’s Super Team just hasn’t had the kind of love the others have had. This year it’s World of Tomorrow which got a boost because it’s streaming on Netflix.
Short Film – Live Action
Nominees
Ave maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Shutterer
Predicted Winner- Shok
Total shot in the dark.
Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted Winner- The Revenant
Apparently to get nominated you need to do makeup and hair on Tom Hardy. The two Tom Hardy movies Mad Max and The Revenant are battling it out for this one. The Hundred-Year-Old Man… was a surprise nomination and has virtually zero chance of winning. Like I said Mad Max will get a lot of support for the technical awards I don’t think it can match the makeup and hair of DiCaprio’s transformation in The Revenant
Music – Original Score
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner- The Hateful Eight
This category is a battle of two legends. Ennio Morricone and John Williams are two of the most respected composers in film history. But it looks like it will be Morricone, who has never won a competitive Oscar, will take this one home.
Music – Original Song
Nominees
“Earned It” from 50 Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3” from Youth
“Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
Predicted Winner-“Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
Once again the Oscars nominated a bunch of songs that have never been on the radio. But I will save that rant for another time. For some reason Lady Gaga is winning everything from Emmy’s to Grammy’s so why not add an Oscar to her list. It helps that it was written by past Oscar winner Diane Warren.
Sound Editing
Nominees
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound is always a difficult category for me. As mentioned earlier I think Mad Max is going to dominate the technical categories but Star Wars could give it some competition.
Sound Mixing
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road
Pretty much the same thing I just said about Sound Editing. I think it comes down to Mad Max or Star Wars.
Visual Effects
Nominees
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner-Star Wars: The Force Awakens
While I think Max Max will win the majority of the technical awards I think Star Wars will take the visual effects.
Best Picture
Nominees
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Predicted Winner – The Revenant-
This has been one of the strangest years for Best Picture. The three big guilds (Screen Actors, Producers, and Directors) all went with different movies (Spotlight, The Big Short, and The Revenant). And there is huge support for Mad Max: Fury Road. Early award season it looked like Spotlight would coast all the way to the Oscars but The Revenant has picked up a lot of steam. While it’s possible The Big Short and Mad Max could win at this point it doesn’t feel likely. So it’s a battle between Spotlight and The Revenant and I keep changing my mind. While I don’t usually see the BAFTA’s as a good indication of what the Oscar’s will do but after The Revenant won I felt it had the most momentum. My biggest issue going against The Revenant is that it’s not nominated for a Best Screenplay Oscar. While it’s been done before it is very rare. Another thing going against The Revenant is that The Academy is all about history and Iñárritu might not be seen as having the prestige to be the first director to direct back to back Best Picture winners. But it does have the most nominations so it was well liked by the majority of the Academy. This is one of my least confident Best Picture predictions in a long time.
Best Director
Nominees
Adam Mckay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro González Iñárritu– The Revenant
Lenny Abramson- Room
Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
Predicted Winner - Alejandro González Iñárritu
Another close call but even if The Revenant doesn’t win Best Picture I think Iñárritu will get the Best Director. No one saw his vision through as much adversity as he did and I think that will get him the award.
Best Actor
Nominees
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Predicted Winner- Leonardo DiCaprio- The Revenant
Of all the categories this year this is one of the easiest to pick. No matter what you thought of his performance everyone seems to agree this is his year to get that Oscar.
Best Actress
Nominees
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Predicted Winner- Brie Larson-Room
Not as easy as Best Actor but Brie Larson has emerges as the front runner in a very close race. With Carol getting left off the Best Picture list it makes thing a bit harder for Cate Blanchett. Jennifer Lawrence got a nomination but Joy wasn’t as well received as her previous nominations so seems unlikely she will pull out the win. Rampling is more of an unknown. Not many have seen 45 Year although those that have say it’s a great performance it’s unlikely she will get the vote. Basically comes down to Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan. Either one could take it but Larson has the edge.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone - Creed
Predicted Winner- Sylvester Stallone – Creed
It’s easy to say Stallone is the sentimental choice and more of a lifetime achievement award but his performance was pretty well praised. And in a category where there isn’t a big stand out it’s that sentimental vote that could put him over the top. Early awards went to Mark Rylance and he could be Stallone’s biggest competitor but I think it’s Stallone that will take it.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Predicted Winner- Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
This is a tough category. There hasn’t been a whole lot said about this category and I have only seen one out of the five movies so can’t even go on my opinion to help me. Like Best Supporting Actor there hasn’t been a real stand out. Rooney Mara got lots of love early on in Award Season but again with Carol not connecting with the Oscar members to land a Best Picture nomination it seems like Vikander has a slight edge. The other thing Vikander has going for her is her performance in Ex Machina. This award could be seen as rewarding both performances.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Winner- Spotlight
While Best Picture has become really muddled without The Big Short and The Revenant adding to the confusion Spotlight is the easy favorite in this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted Winner- The Big Short
Without Spotlight or The Revenant competing against it The Big Short is the easy favorite here.
Best Animated Film
Nominees
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted Winner- Inside Out
While early on in awards season it looked like it would be a close race between Inside Out and Anomalisa. Well it turns out Inside Out has just dominated the category and if Anomalisa wins it will be a big surprise.
Best Documentary
Nominees
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraines Fight for Freedom
Predicted Winner- Amy
Best Documentary is another category that has had two movies competing all award season long. Amy and The Look of Silence have been nominated against each other in almost every Best Documentary race and Amy has won pretty much every one.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees
Embrace of the Serpent
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Predicted Winner- Son of Saul
Son of Saul has dominated this category all season and some actually thought Son of Saul could get a Best Picture nomination so betting against it would be foolish.
Cinematography
Nominees
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
The Revenant
Predicted Winner- The Revenant
Emmanuel Lubezki has won Best Cinematography 2 years in a row and there is no reason to believe he won’t make it a threepeat. While there has been a backlash against The Revenant recently you cannot argue that it was one of the most beautifully filmed movies of the year. If the Academy decides that they don’t want to give it to him the third year in a row I think it will go to Roger Deakins for Sicario. After being nominated 14 times and losing to Lubezki two years in a row some might see him as due.
Production Design
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road
I realized I originally posted my predictions without picking one in this category (which leads me to believe no one reads what I post). Anyway, this is a hard category for me to figure out since I am not entirely sure what production design is. But it seems like this will be another battle between The Revenant and Mad Max. But after doing some reading it seems the amount of unique cars in Mad Max is what will give it the edge.
Costume Design
Nominees
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted Winner- Cinderella
For costumes I always go for the biggest costumes and that would be Cinderella. But Carol and The Danish Girl have are a bit more of prestige films and either one of them could win it.
Film Editing
Nominees
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner- Mad Max: Fury Road
With the second most nominations and the love of Mad Max it’s the technical awards that I think it will do well in. And one of the things that makes Mad Max work so well is the pacing which has a lot to do with the editing.
Short Film – Documentary
Nominees
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom
Predicted Winner- Body Team 12
For me the short films are usually a crap shoot. I actually saw Body Team 12 and loved it and it has to do with Ebola and death so it is dark documentary which is what the Oscars usually go with.
Short Film – Animated
Nominees
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow
Predicted Winner- World of Tomorrow
Obviously Disney has dominated this category in years past and they have had a semi resurgence in the past couple of years with Feast and Paperman recently winning. But Sanjay’s Super Team just hasn’t had the kind of love the others have had. This year it’s World of Tomorrow which got a boost because it’s streaming on Netflix.
Short Film – Live Action
Nominees
Ave maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Shutterer
Predicted Winner- Shok
Total shot in the dark.
Makeup & Hairstyling
Nominees
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Hundred-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted Winner- The Revenant
Apparently to get nominated you need to do makeup and hair on Tom Hardy. The two Tom Hardy movies Mad Max and The Revenant are battling it out for this one. The Hundred-Year-Old Man… was a surprise nomination and has virtually zero chance of winning. Like I said Mad Max will get a lot of support for the technical awards I don’t think it can match the makeup and hair of DiCaprio’s transformation in The Revenant
Music – Original Score
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner- The Hateful Eight
This category is a battle of two legends. Ennio Morricone and John Williams are two of the most respected composers in film history. But it looks like it will be Morricone, who has never won a competitive Oscar, will take this one home.
Music – Original Song
Nominees
“Earned It” from 50 Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction
“Simple Song #3” from Youth
“Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre
Predicted Winner-“Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
Once again the Oscars nominated a bunch of songs that have never been on the radio. But I will save that rant for another time. For some reason Lady Gaga is winning everything from Emmy’s to Grammy’s so why not add an Oscar to her list. It helps that it was written by past Oscar winner Diane Warren.
Sound Editing
Nominees
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road
Sound is always a difficult category for me. As mentioned earlier I think Mad Max is going to dominate the technical categories but Star Wars could give it some competition.
Sound Mixing
Nominees
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner-Mad Max: Fury Road
Pretty much the same thing I just said about Sound Editing. I think it comes down to Mad Max or Star Wars.
Visual Effects
Nominees
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Winner-Star Wars: The Force Awakens
While I think Max Max will win the majority of the technical awards I think Star Wars will take the visual effects.