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2017 Oscar Predictions

2/24/2017

1 Comment

 
Picture
by Stephen Milek
The Oscars are right around the corner and the winners are starting to take shape.  While some feel this year the winners are fairly predictable there are a few close races and as we learned last year never count out the underdogs (Cavaliers, Cubs, Trump).  And I decided to try an experiment this year.  Instead of seeing all the movies nominated for Oscars I went the opposite direction and skipped most of the nominees.  I have only seen 6 movies nominated and 1 movie nominated for Best Picture (Hell or High Water).  So obviously these picks are based on buzz and previous wins (except for Best Documentary Short where I picked the only movie I saw).  

Let me know what you think.  
​ Best Picture
 
Nominees
            Arrival
            Fences
            Hacksaw Ridge
            Hell or High Water
            Hidden Figures
            La La Land
            Lion
            Manchester by the Sea
            Moonlight
 
Prediction – La La Land
 
All Award Season La La Land has had front runner status but I never thought it would win.  But after snagging 14 nominations it’s hard to bet against it.  No movie with that many nominations has ever lost Best Picture.  But this past year has proven that nothing is impossible. Moonlight and Hidden Figures are probably the two movies that could end up being surprise wins. 
 
Best Director
 
Nominees
            Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
            Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
            Damien Chazelle – La La Land
            Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
            Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
 
Prediction –Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
 
While traditionally Best Picture and Best Director went to the same movie the trend lately has been to split category.  I am guessing that this year Barry Jenkins for Moonlight will get the win although it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Damien Chazelle won. 
 
Best Original Screenplay
 
Nominees
            Mike Mills – 20th Century Women
            Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water
            Damien Chazelle – La La Land
            Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou – The Lobster
            Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
 
Prediction – Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
 
Manchester by the Sea has been the front runner in this category for a while.  Although if La La Land has momentum it could get the win here. La La Land is one of the only musicals to get a screenplay nomination.  But I still think the less showy more emotional Manchester by the Sea will get the win.
 
Best Adapted Screenplay
 
Nominees
            Eric Heisserer – Arrival
            August Wilson – Fences
            Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder – Hidden Figures
            Luke Davies – Lion
            Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moonlight
 
Prediction- Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moolight
 
Moonlight is the clear front runner in this race.  During most pre-Oscar awards it was considered an Original Screenplay andhad to compete with Manchester by the Sea and La La Land being placed in the Adapted category decreases it’s competition and increases its chances of winning.  A similar thing happened when Damien Chazelle won for Whiplash a few years ago. 
 
Best Actor
 
Nominees
            Viggo Mortensen  - Captain Fantastic
            Denzel Washington – Fences
            Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
            Ryan Gosling – La La Land
            Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
 
Prediction- Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
 
This is one of the most interesting races this year.  Casey Affleck has been frontrunner all Award Season and looked like he had the win locked up. But then Denzel Washington won the SAG award and everything changed.  With the backlash against Affleck about his sexual assault accusations Denzel might seem like the safe choice.  But I still think Casey Affleck will get the win. 
 
Best Actress
 
Nominees
            Isabelle Huppert – Elle
            Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
            Natalie Portman – Jackie
            Emma Stone – La La Land
            Ruth Negga – Loving
 
Prediction- Emma Stone – La La Land
 
Another tough race although Emma Stone is pretty much emerged as the clear frontrunner and she did win the SAG. 
 
Best Supporting Actor
 
Nominees
            Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
            Dev Patel – Lion
            Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
            Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
            Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
 
Prediction- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
 
If there is one category that seems like a sure thing it is this one.  Pretty confident that Mahershala Ali will get this one. 
 
Best Supporting Actress
 
Nominees
            Viola Davis – Fences
            Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
            Nicole Kidman- Lion
            Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
            Naomie Harris – Moonlight
 
Prediction- Viola Davis
 
With a SAG win and never having won before there is a lot of good will for Viola Davis and she should be able to turn that into a win. 
 
Best Animated Film
 
Nominees
            Kubo and the Two Strings
            Moana
            My Life as a Zucchini
            The Red Turtle
            Zootopia
 
Prediction- Kubo and the Two Strings
 
This is a two horse race.  It’s either going to be Kubo and the Two Strings or Zootopia.  Kubo got the better reviews and even has a nomination in Best Visual Effects but you can never count out the Disney machine who has won the Best Animated Feature category for several years in a row now. 
 
Best Foreign Language Film
 
Nominees
            A Man Called Ove
            Land of Mine
            The Salesman
            Tanna
            Toni Erdmann
 
Prediction- Toni Erdmann
 
With Elle not getting a nomination this category is Toni Earmann’s to lose.  Although I have seen some think The Salesman could win if voters feel sorry for his situations and want to make a political statement (the director is from Iran and was affected by travel ban put in by President Trump)
 
Best Documentary - Feature
 
Nominees
            13th    
            Fire at Sea
            I am Not Your Negro
            Life, Animated
            O.J.: Made in America
 
Prediction- O.J.: Made in America
 
No documentary has gotten more buzz than O.J. Made in America.  Although I do think it’s a bit of a cheat since the “movie” was originally made as a miniseries.  But it got the nominations and will most likely get the win.  And at over 7.5 hours will become the longest movie ever to win an Oscar. 
 
Best Cinematography
 
Nominees
            Bradford Young – Arrival
            Linus Sandgren – La La Land
            Greig Fraser – Lion
            James Laxton – Moonlight
            Rodrigo Prieto – Silence
 
Prediction – La La Land
 
Since I haven’t seen any of the movies nominated for cinematography it’s hard for me to guess which one will win.  But it seems that La La Land with its bright colors and fantastical sequences will get the win.
 
Best Film Editing
 
Nominees
            Joe Walker – Arrival
            John Gilbert – Hacksaw Ridge
            Jake Roberts – Hell or High Water
            Tom Cross – La La Land
            Joi McMillon – Moonlight
 
Prediction- Hacksaw Ridge
 
This is another category that La La Land could win but recent the Oscars have been going to action movies lately and Hacksaw Ridge is the only one nominated.  So I give it the edge. 
 
Best Production Design
 
Nominees
            Arrival
            Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
            Hail, Caesar!
            La La Land
            Passengers
 
Prediction- La La Land
 
With 14 nominations La La Land is going to pick up some of the technical awards so will probably get this one.             
 
Best Sound Mixing
 
Nominees
            13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
            Arrival
            Hacksaw Ridge
            La La Land
            Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
 
Prediction- La La Land
 
Musicals usually get sound mixing so going with La La Land.
 
Best Sound Editing
 
Nominees
            Arrival
            Deepwater Horizon
            Hacksaw Ridge
            La La Land
            Sully
 
Prediction- Hacksaw Ridge
 
Lots of sound effects and explosions going on so thinking it will get the Sound Editing award.  Although if La La Land gets on a roll could just pick this one up too.
 
 
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
 
Nominees
            A Man Called Ove
            Star Trek Beyond
            Suicide Squad
 
Prediction- Star Trek Beyond
 
Because why not? It’s anyone’s guess.  Not sure there is a clear front runner in this one. 
 
Best Costume Design
 
Nominees
            Allied
            Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
            Florence Foster Jenkins
            Jackie
            La La Land
 
Prediction- Jackie
 
If there is one think Jackie was known for it’s her style. 
 
Best Visual Effects
 
Nominees
            Deepwater Horizon
            Doctor Strange
            The Jungle Book
            Kubo and the Two Strings
            Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
 
Prediction- The Jungle Book
 
Since it was released all anyone can talk about is the Special Effects in The Jungle Book so is should come out with the win. 
 
Best Documentary- Short Subject
 
Nominees
            Extremis
            4.1 Miles
            Joe’s Violin
            Watani: My Homeland
            The White Helmets
 
Prediction- Joe’s Violin
 
Short films a hard to predict but going with the movie I actually saw.  But who knows.
 
Best Live Action Short Film
 
Nominees
            Enemies Within
            The Railroad Lady
            Silent Nights
            Sing
            Timecode
 
Prediction- The Railroad Lady
 
Just guessing on this one.  Haven’t seen any so a shot in the dark.
 
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees
            Blind Vaysha
            Borrowed Time
            Pear Cider and Cigarettes
            Pearl
            Piper
 
Prediction- Piper
 
Besided constantly winning Animated Feature, Disney tends to win Animated Short. So I am going with the short that played before Finding Dory. 
 
Best original Score
 
Nominees
            Jackie
            La La Land
            Lion
            Moonlight
            Passengers
 
Prediction- La La Land
 
It’s a musical so it has to have good music right? 
 
Best Original Song
 
Nominees
            Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
            Can’t Stop the Feeling! – Trolls
            City of Stars – La La land
            The Empty Chair – Jim: The James Foley Story
            How Far I’ll Go – Moana
 
Prediction- How Far I’ll GO- Moana
 
Kind of going out on a limb for this one.  But while everyone loves La La Land it's hard to bet against the Disney machine on this one.  Although if my son had a choice he would choose Can't Stop the Feeling from Trolls.  

1 Comment
rushanessay.com link
2/7/2020 10:35:16 pm

These were really accurate predictions, and I was surprised when I first saw it. I never expected them to be as accurate that they were. I think that you really have a great instinct when it comes to analyzing who will win in the future. If you want to be a guest blogger for my page, then I would welcome you with open arms. I am always in the need for people who are capable enough to write content that are like this.

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