by Stephen Milek
The Oscars are right around the corner and the winners are starting to take shape. While some feel this year the winners are fairly predictable there are a few close races and as we learned last year never count out the underdogs (Cavaliers, Cubs, Trump). And I decided to try an experiment this year. Instead of seeing all the movies nominated for Oscars I went the opposite direction and skipped most of the nominees. I have only seen 6 movies nominated and 1 movie nominated for Best Picture (Hell or High Water). So obviously these picks are based on buzz and previous wins (except for Best Documentary Short where I picked the only movie I saw).
Let me know what you think.
Let me know what you think.
Best Picture
Nominees
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Prediction – La La Land
All Award Season La La Land has had front runner status but I never thought it would win. But after snagging 14 nominations it’s hard to bet against it. No movie with that many nominations has ever lost Best Picture. But this past year has proven that nothing is impossible. Moonlight and Hidden Figures are probably the two movies that could end up being surprise wins.
Best Director
Nominees
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Prediction –Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
While traditionally Best Picture and Best Director went to the same movie the trend lately has been to split category. I am guessing that this year Barry Jenkins for Moonlight will get the win although it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Damien Chazelle won.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
Mike Mills – 20th Century Women
Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou – The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Prediction – Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Manchester by the Sea has been the front runner in this category for a while. Although if La La Land has momentum it could get the win here. La La Land is one of the only musicals to get a screenplay nomination. But I still think the less showy more emotional Manchester by the Sea will get the win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
Eric Heisserer – Arrival
August Wilson – Fences
Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder – Hidden Figures
Luke Davies – Lion
Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moonlight
Prediction- Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moolight
Moonlight is the clear front runner in this race. During most pre-Oscar awards it was considered an Original Screenplay andhad to compete with Manchester by the Sea and La La Land being placed in the Adapted category decreases it’s competition and increases its chances of winning. A similar thing happened when Damien Chazelle won for Whiplash a few years ago.
Best Actor
Nominees
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Prediction- Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
This is one of the most interesting races this year. Casey Affleck has been frontrunner all Award Season and looked like he had the win locked up. But then Denzel Washington won the SAG award and everything changed. With the backlash against Affleck about his sexual assault accusations Denzel might seem like the safe choice. But I still think Casey Affleck will get the win.
Best Actress
Nominees
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Ruth Negga – Loving
Prediction- Emma Stone – La La Land
Another tough race although Emma Stone is pretty much emerged as the clear frontrunner and she did win the SAG.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Dev Patel – Lion
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Prediction- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
If there is one category that seems like a sure thing it is this one. Pretty confident that Mahershala Ali will get this one.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Viola Davis – Fences
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Nicole Kidman- Lion
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Prediction- Viola Davis
With a SAG win and never having won before there is a lot of good will for Viola Davis and she should be able to turn that into a win.
Best Animated Film
Nominees
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Prediction- Kubo and the Two Strings
This is a two horse race. It’s either going to be Kubo and the Two Strings or Zootopia. Kubo got the better reviews and even has a nomination in Best Visual Effects but you can never count out the Disney machine who has won the Best Animated Feature category for several years in a row now.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Prediction- Toni Erdmann
With Elle not getting a nomination this category is Toni Earmann’s to lose. Although I have seen some think The Salesman could win if voters feel sorry for his situations and want to make a political statement (the director is from Iran and was affected by travel ban put in by President Trump)
Best Documentary - Feature
Nominees
13th
Fire at Sea
I am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
Prediction- O.J.: Made in America
No documentary has gotten more buzz than O.J. Made in America. Although I do think it’s a bit of a cheat since the “movie” was originally made as a miniseries. But it got the nominations and will most likely get the win. And at over 7.5 hours will become the longest movie ever to win an Oscar.
Best Cinematography
Nominees
Bradford Young – Arrival
Linus Sandgren – La La Land
Greig Fraser – Lion
James Laxton – Moonlight
Rodrigo Prieto – Silence
Prediction – La La Land
Since I haven’t seen any of the movies nominated for cinematography it’s hard for me to guess which one will win. But it seems that La La Land with its bright colors and fantastical sequences will get the win.
Best Film Editing
Nominees
Joe Walker – Arrival
John Gilbert – Hacksaw Ridge
Jake Roberts – Hell or High Water
Tom Cross – La La Land
Joi McMillon – Moonlight
Prediction- Hacksaw Ridge
This is another category that La La Land could win but recent the Oscars have been going to action movies lately and Hacksaw Ridge is the only one nominated. So I give it the edge.
Best Production Design
Nominees
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Prediction- La La Land
With 14 nominations La La Land is going to pick up some of the technical awards so will probably get this one.
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Prediction- La La Land
Musicals usually get sound mixing so going with La La Land.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Prediction- Hacksaw Ridge
Lots of sound effects and explosions going on so thinking it will get the Sound Editing award. Although if La La Land gets on a roll could just pick this one up too.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Prediction- Star Trek Beyond
Because why not? It’s anyone’s guess. Not sure there is a clear front runner in this one.
Best Costume Design
Nominees
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Prediction- Jackie
If there is one think Jackie was known for it’s her style.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Prediction- The Jungle Book
Since it was released all anyone can talk about is the Special Effects in The Jungle Book so is should come out with the win.
Best Documentary- Short Subject
Nominees
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Prediction- Joe’s Violin
Short films a hard to predict but going with the movie I actually saw. But who knows.
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees
Enemies Within
The Railroad Lady
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Prediction- The Railroad Lady
Just guessing on this one. Haven’t seen any so a shot in the dark.
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Prediction- Piper
Besided constantly winning Animated Feature, Disney tends to win Animated Short. So I am going with the short that played before Finding Dory.
Best original Score
Nominees
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Prediction- La La Land
It’s a musical so it has to have good music right?
Best Original Song
Nominees
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling! – Trolls
City of Stars – La La land
The Empty Chair – Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go – Moana
Prediction- How Far I’ll GO- Moana
Kind of going out on a limb for this one. But while everyone loves La La Land it's hard to bet against the Disney machine on this one. Although if my son had a choice he would choose Can't Stop the Feeling from Trolls.
Nominees
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Prediction – La La Land
All Award Season La La Land has had front runner status but I never thought it would win. But after snagging 14 nominations it’s hard to bet against it. No movie with that many nominations has ever lost Best Picture. But this past year has proven that nothing is impossible. Moonlight and Hidden Figures are probably the two movies that could end up being surprise wins.
Best Director
Nominees
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Prediction –Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
While traditionally Best Picture and Best Director went to the same movie the trend lately has been to split category. I am guessing that this year Barry Jenkins for Moonlight will get the win although it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if Damien Chazelle won.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees
Mike Mills – 20th Century Women
Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou – The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Prediction – Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Manchester by the Sea has been the front runner in this category for a while. Although if La La Land has momentum it could get the win here. La La Land is one of the only musicals to get a screenplay nomination. But I still think the less showy more emotional Manchester by the Sea will get the win.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
Eric Heisserer – Arrival
August Wilson – Fences
Theodore Melfi and Allison Schroeder – Hidden Figures
Luke Davies – Lion
Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moonlight
Prediction- Barry Jenkins and Tarell Alvin McCraney – Moolight
Moonlight is the clear front runner in this race. During most pre-Oscar awards it was considered an Original Screenplay andhad to compete with Manchester by the Sea and La La Land being placed in the Adapted category decreases it’s competition and increases its chances of winning. A similar thing happened when Damien Chazelle won for Whiplash a few years ago.
Best Actor
Nominees
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Prediction- Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
This is one of the most interesting races this year. Casey Affleck has been frontrunner all Award Season and looked like he had the win locked up. But then Denzel Washington won the SAG award and everything changed. With the backlash against Affleck about his sexual assault accusations Denzel might seem like the safe choice. But I still think Casey Affleck will get the win.
Best Actress
Nominees
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Ruth Negga – Loving
Prediction- Emma Stone – La La Land
Another tough race although Emma Stone is pretty much emerged as the clear frontrunner and she did win the SAG.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Dev Patel – Lion
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Prediction- Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
If there is one category that seems like a sure thing it is this one. Pretty confident that Mahershala Ali will get this one.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees
Viola Davis – Fences
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Nicole Kidman- Lion
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Prediction- Viola Davis
With a SAG win and never having won before there is a lot of good will for Viola Davis and she should be able to turn that into a win.
Best Animated Film
Nominees
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Prediction- Kubo and the Two Strings
This is a two horse race. It’s either going to be Kubo and the Two Strings or Zootopia. Kubo got the better reviews and even has a nomination in Best Visual Effects but you can never count out the Disney machine who has won the Best Animated Feature category for several years in a row now.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
Prediction- Toni Erdmann
With Elle not getting a nomination this category is Toni Earmann’s to lose. Although I have seen some think The Salesman could win if voters feel sorry for his situations and want to make a political statement (the director is from Iran and was affected by travel ban put in by President Trump)
Best Documentary - Feature
Nominees
13th
Fire at Sea
I am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
Prediction- O.J.: Made in America
No documentary has gotten more buzz than O.J. Made in America. Although I do think it’s a bit of a cheat since the “movie” was originally made as a miniseries. But it got the nominations and will most likely get the win. And at over 7.5 hours will become the longest movie ever to win an Oscar.
Best Cinematography
Nominees
Bradford Young – Arrival
Linus Sandgren – La La Land
Greig Fraser – Lion
James Laxton – Moonlight
Rodrigo Prieto – Silence
Prediction – La La Land
Since I haven’t seen any of the movies nominated for cinematography it’s hard for me to guess which one will win. But it seems that La La Land with its bright colors and fantastical sequences will get the win.
Best Film Editing
Nominees
Joe Walker – Arrival
John Gilbert – Hacksaw Ridge
Jake Roberts – Hell or High Water
Tom Cross – La La Land
Joi McMillon – Moonlight
Prediction- Hacksaw Ridge
This is another category that La La Land could win but recent the Oscars have been going to action movies lately and Hacksaw Ridge is the only one nominated. So I give it the edge.
Best Production Design
Nominees
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
Prediction- La La Land
With 14 nominations La La Land is going to pick up some of the technical awards so will probably get this one.
Best Sound Mixing
Nominees
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Prediction- La La Land
Musicals usually get sound mixing so going with La La Land.
Best Sound Editing
Nominees
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Prediction- Hacksaw Ridge
Lots of sound effects and explosions going on so thinking it will get the Sound Editing award. Although if La La Land gets on a roll could just pick this one up too.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Prediction- Star Trek Beyond
Because why not? It’s anyone’s guess. Not sure there is a clear front runner in this one.
Best Costume Design
Nominees
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Prediction- Jackie
If there is one think Jackie was known for it’s her style.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Prediction- The Jungle Book
Since it was released all anyone can talk about is the Special Effects in The Jungle Book so is should come out with the win.
Best Documentary- Short Subject
Nominees
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
Prediction- Joe’s Violin
Short films a hard to predict but going with the movie I actually saw. But who knows.
Best Live Action Short Film
Nominees
Enemies Within
The Railroad Lady
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
Prediction- The Railroad Lady
Just guessing on this one. Haven’t seen any so a shot in the dark.
Best Animated Short Film
Nominees
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Prediction- Piper
Besided constantly winning Animated Feature, Disney tends to win Animated Short. So I am going with the short that played before Finding Dory.
Best original Score
Nominees
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Prediction- La La Land
It’s a musical so it has to have good music right?
Best Original Song
Nominees
Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land
Can’t Stop the Feeling! – Trolls
City of Stars – La La land
The Empty Chair – Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go – Moana
Prediction- How Far I’ll GO- Moana
Kind of going out on a limb for this one. But while everyone loves La La Land it's hard to bet against the Disney machine on this one. Although if my son had a choice he would choose Can't Stop the Feeling from Trolls.
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