It's still early so anything can change but as of now this is how I see the race.
There are already some clear front runners and movies like Silence haven't been seen by a lot of people so hard to know where that will land in the race.
I only included some of the bigger races. I left off the screenplay categories because I can never figure out what is considered original or adapted. But look for most of the big films (Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, La La Land, and SIlence) to all get nominations in one of the writing categories.
Let me know what you think.
Predictions down below.
The Best Picture race is starting to take shape. While it’s still early in award season there are already 3 movies that are clear frontrunners. There are few others that feel pretty good about getting a nomination and the rest is pretty questionable. I listed the movies in order of chances of winning and nominations.
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. La La Land
9. Hell or High water
10. Hacksaw Ridge
Best Director – Pretty easy category since it mirrors my top 5 in picture. But you could can’t really count out a Eastwood or Gibson showing up.
1. Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
2. Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
3. Damien Chazelle - La La Land
4. Martin Scorsese- Silence
5. Denis Villeneuve- Arrival
Best Actor – This looks like Casey Affleck’s race to lose. He has gotten all the early buzz. But you have Denzel Washington right at his heels. And if La La Land really builds momentum it could help Ryan Gosling.
1. Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington - Fences
3. Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
4. Tom Hanks – Sully
5. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Best Actress – Lots of strong performances from the ladies this year. Natalie Portman got lots of attention for Jackie but Annette Bening has never won an Oscar and many people think she is due.
1. Natalie Portman - Jackie
2. Amy Adams -Arrival
3. Emma Stone - La La Land
4. Annette Bening – 20th Century Woman
5. Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Best Supporting Actor – One of the toughest categories for me. I don’t have a real sense of how things will go. Mahershala Ali from Moonlight is the clear front runner. I think Jeff Bridges will get it for Hell or High Water but Ben Foster could get one too. L.A. Film Critics went with Issey Ogata from Silence so I threw him in the mix but I feel that might be more of a long shot. I have no idea about the fifth spot. I have seen Hugh Grant’s name thrown around so why not.
1. Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water
3. Issey Ogata – Silence
4. Ben Foster – Hell or High Water
5. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Supporting Actress- Harris, Davis, and Williams seem like sure things. Molly Shannon has been getting some buzz and might be a long shot but I think she can get some good support from the academy.
1. Naomie Harris - Moonlight
2. Viola Davis – Fences
3. Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Molly Shannon – Other People
Best Animated Film – Disney and Pixar have won this award almost every year since it was started. This year they had 3 films (Zootopia, Moana, and Finding Dory) that could make the cut but I think only 2 of them will. So the question is which one gets left off? Despite making the most money I think Finding Dory gets left off. Either way I think the Disney/Pixar reign ends with Kubo and the Two Strings which has received the most buzz this year.
1. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. The Little Prince
5. The Red Turtle