While Silence looked like it was going to make a strong case for itself it feels like it kind of got left behind with no SAG, WGA, PGA, DGA nominations it’s hard to consider it a serious contender. On the other hand, Deadpool landed a WGA, PGA, and a DGA nominations as well as one from the Editing Guild so it has made a great case for a spot on the Best Picture list. If that happens it will be the first superhero movie to do it. But it is still hard to consider it a serious contender. The other movie that has been gaining momentum is Hidden Figures. The movie always felt like it was in the back of the pack and struggling to get noticed, but now that it finally got released to rave reviews and making lots of money so I feel confident it will get a Best Picture nomination. Captain Fantastic scored an ensemble and Best Actor nomination at the SAG awards it’s hard to tell if that will carry over to the Oscars.
BEST PICTURE – Since they went for a format of anywhere from 5 – 10 nominations it’s always a crap shoot guessing what will get in and what will get left out. Here are my predictions with the ones closer to that top the more likely the nominations. And despite La La Land starting to pull ahead as the front runner I will still stick with Manchester by the Sea for now as my predicted Best Picture winner.
Manchester by the Sea
La La Land
Hell or High Water
20th Century Women
BEST DIRECTOR – As we get closer the top 5 is beginning to look more clear. While it’s hard to push Martin Scorsese out at this point it’s hard to include him with zero momentum.
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Denzel Washington - Fences
Denis Villeneuve - Arrival
Martin Scorsese - Silence
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
David Mackenzie – Hell of High Water
Jeff Nichols - Loving
Clint Eastwood - Sully
BEST ACTOR – It’s a tough category. Casey Affleck seems to have the category all but won and Denzel seems to be his toughest competitor. So who will the other three be? I had Tom Hanks for Sully on the list for a while but decided to movie him off as buzz for that movie has faded. I think Ryan Gosling will get in with the wave of momentum from La La Land. I think Andrew Garfield and Viggo Mortensen will take the last two spots. But you can never count out Tom Hanks jumping back into the mix.
Casey Affleck – Mancehster by the Sea
Denzel Washington – Fences
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Tom Hanks - Sully
Joel Edgerton - Loving
Ryan Reynolds - Deadpool
BEST ACTRESS – Like Best Actor you have three clear frontrunners and a few others that could take a spot. Unlike Best Actor I am more confident about my 5 picks here with Isabelle Huppert getting one for Elle and Annette Benning getting one for 20th Century Woman. The big question mark is Meryl Streep. Almost everything she does gets nominated but wasn’t feeling that much support for Florence Foster Jenkins. Now after her Golden Globe speech I think she has garnered a lot more attention and that might be enough to get her nominated.
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Amy Adams – Arrival
Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Annette Bening – 20th Century Woman
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Ruth Neggra – Loving
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – The supporting races are always one of the toughest raced to predict. I think Mahershala Ali is the still the front runner despite his Golden Globe loss the rest of the bunch is kind of up for grabs. I made a late change taking out Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins and putting in Lucas Hedges for Manchester by the Sea because Hedges might ride the wave of support for that film.
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals
Dev Patel – Lion
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Aaron Taylor Johnson – Nocturnal Animals
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Supporting Actress is again a tough category. With Viola Davis and Naomie Harris battling out for the win. Other than those two there hasn’t been many talked about Supporting roles so you have to go with Oscars favorites Michelle Williams, Nicole Kidman, and Octavia Spencer who have all been nominated or won previously.
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Viola Davis – Fences
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Woman
Molly Shannon – Other People
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – Since it’s rare to get a Best Picture nomination without a screenplay the top three predictions are kind of easy. La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Hell or High Water should get a nomination if they are going to get nominated for Best Picture. The last two are kind of up for grabs. I went with The Lobster because it sounds weird and bizarre and truly an original film. While Jackie has gotten some praise it also has gotten some backlash but still think it will get the nomination.
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Hell or High Water
20th Century Woman
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Similar to Original Screenplay the top three adapted will be from the Best Picture list. The big controversy in this category is Moonlight and Lovie which both got Original Screenplay nominations from WGA but The Academy considers them Adapted. I think that helps both of them. Moonlight probably would have been nominated either way but in the Adapted Category it is easily the Frontrunner. While the added controversy gives Loving a little boost. I would have had Silence in here but again it never generated enough buzz. I went with Nocturnal Animals as a surprise but guess we can’t count out Deadpool ending up with a nomination.
BEST ANIMATED FILM – Disney and Pixar have had a strangle hold on this category for a number of years. This year they have three movies in contention with Zootopia, Moana, and Finding Dory. While it’s possible all three get a nomination I think only two of the three will, and the two I am predicting are Zootopia and Moana. I think Kubo and the Two Strings could break the Disney streak but if a Disney movie is going to win it will most likely be Zootopia.
Kubo and the Two Strings
The Little Prince
The Red Turtle
The Secret Life of Pets
The Angry Birds Movie
BEST DOCUMENTARY – Documentary is always a crap shoot. There is no telling what the Academy will nominate and sometimes they make some bizarre choices. It feels like O.J. Made in America has the most buzz right now and clearly the current favorite. If 13th does end up getting nominated it will be a big day for Netflix as it would be their first original movie to get an Oscar nomination.
O.J. Made in America
I am Not Your Negro
The Eagle Huntress
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – Like Documentary there is no telling what will get nominated. Elle and Toni Erdmann were the frontrunner in this category but Elle didn’t even make the list of final 9. So with Toni Erdmann the now front runner the other 4 are really anyone’s guess.
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
My Life as a Zucchini
The Kings Choice
It’s Only the End of the World