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Oscar Nomination Predictions 2016

1/9/2016

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Picture
by Stephen Milek
Oscar nominations will be announced next week and all the Oscar ballots have been submitted.  So it's time to start putting some predictions in writing.  I thought about waiting till the DGA announced their nominees and I might update it after they do but not sure how much will change.  I am pretty confident on most of these predictions.  Again these are based on current trends and previous nominations so far this Oscar season.  These are not my personal opinions since I have not seen most of the movies.  Unlike previous years I am only predicting a few of the major categories.  Not going to try to predict all of them.  
Let me know what you think.  
Best Picture - The number of nominations in this category can be anywhere from 5 - 10.  Last year there were 8 and the 2 years previous there were 9.  Since there is no way of telling how many there will be I tried to list them in order of predicted chances with Inside Out the least likely to make the cut.  I would have had Carol higher up but after missing out on a PGA nomination it bumped it down a few notches.  
 
Predictions
            Spotlight
            The Revenant
            The Big Short
            Bridge of Spies
            Mad Max: Fury Road
            The Martian
            Carol
            Brooklyn
            Room
            Inside Out
             
Possibilities
            Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens
            The Hateful Eight
            Sicario
            Creed
            Anomalisa
            Ex Machina
            Straight Outta Compton
          
Long Shots
            Steve Jobs
            Beasts of No Nation
             Trumbo
           
 Best Director
 
Predictions
            Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
            Todd Haynes – Carol
            Adam McKay- The Big Short
            Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies
            Alejandro González Iñárritu – The Revenant
 
Possibilities
            George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
            Ridley Scott - The Martian
            Ryan Coogler – Creed
            Quintin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight
            Charlie Kaufman and Duke Johnson – Anomalisa
            Lenny Abrahamsson- Room
            John Crowley - Brooklyn
           
           
Long Shots
            Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs
            Laszlo Nemes – Son of Saul
            Alex Garland – Ex machina
           
 
Best Actor - I think the Top 4 are pretty much a lock.  The 5th spot is up for grabs but I am going with Bryan Cranston. 
 
Predictions
            Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
            Matt Damon – The Martian
            Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
            Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
            Bryan Cranston - Trumbo
           
Possibilities
            Paul Dano – Love and Mercy
            Michael B. Jordan – Creed
            Will Smith - Concussion
            Geza Rohrig – Son of Saul
           
Long Shots
            Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes
            Abraham Attah – Beasts of No Nation
            Johnny Depp – Black Mass
            Michael Caine – Youth
           
 
Best Actress - Pretty confident about these picks.  
 
Predictions
            Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
            Brie Larson – Room
            Cate Blanchett – Carol
            Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
            Jennifer Lawrence - Joy
           
Possibilities
            Emily Blunt – Sicario
            Helen Mirren - The Woman in Gold
            Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van
 
           
Long Shots
            Lily Tomlin – Grandma
            Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road
            Amy Schumer – Trainwreck
           
 
Best Supporting Actor -This category is wide open and besides for Mark Rylance it's a crap shoot.  So this should be an interesting category to see who turns up in.  
 
Predictions
            Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
            Sylvester Stallone – Creed
            Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
            Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
            Christian Bale – The Big Short          
 
Possibilities
            Paul Dano – Love & Mercy
            Michael Keaton- Spotlight
            Benicio Del Toro – Sicario
            Jacob Tremblay – Room
            Oscar Isaac – Ex Machina
            Michael Shannon – 99 Homes
 
Long Shots
            Jason Segal – The End of the Tour
            Harvey Keitel – Youth
           
         
Best Supporting Actress - The big question is what movie will Alicia Vikander get a nomination for Ex Machina or The Danish Girl.  I feel Ex Machina is building some steam and went with that one.  Although some might consider her role in The Danish Girl as a lead so she could get two nominations.  
 
Predictions
            Kristin Stewart – Cloud of Sils Maria
            Rooney Mara – Carol
            Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
            Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
            Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
 
Possibilities
            Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
            Rachel McAdams - Spotlight
           
Long Shots
            Jane Fonda – Youth
            Elizabeth Banks- Love and Mercy
           
 
Best Original Screenplay 
 
Predictions
            Spotlight
            Bridge of Spies
            Inside Out
            The Hateful Eight
            Ex Machina
           
Possibilities
            Straight Outta Compton
            Trainwreck
            Sicario
            Love and Mercy
                       
Long Shots
            Son of Saul
            Joy
           
Best Adapted Screenplay
 
Predictions
            The Martian
            Room
            Carol
            Steve Jobs
            The Big Short
                       
Possibilities
            Brooklyn
            Anomalisa
           
Long Shots
            Trumbo
            Creed
            Beasts of No Nation
         
Best Animated Film -Another category I am pretty confident in unless like last year there is a major upset.  
 
Predictions
            Inside Out
            Anomalisa
            The Peanuts Movie
            Shaun the Sheep
            The Good Dinosaur
 
Possibilities
            Minions
           
Long Shots
            Spongebob Squarepants: Sponge out of Water
 
Best Documentary -Amy and The Look of Silence have dominated the conversation so far and one of those two should win.  So just trying to pick who the other 3 losers will be.  
 
Predictions
            Amy
            The Look of Silence
            He Named Me Malala
            Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
            Winter on Fire
 
Possibilities
            What Happened, Miss Simone
            Cartel Land
            Best of Enemies
Long Shots
            Where to Invade Next
            Listen to Me Marlon
            Meru
 
Best Foreign Language Film - Son of Soul is the big front runner in this category.  Also feel pretty confident in Mustang.  The rest not as much but think it will look something like this.  
 
Predictions
            Son of Soul
            Mustang
            Embrace the Serpent
            The Fencer
            A War
 
Possibilities
            Viva
            The Brand New Testament
            Labyrinth of Lies
            Theeb
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