Oscar Predictions

First the New York Film Critic Circle Awards, then The Gotham Awards, and now the National Board of Review announced their awards. Must be Oscar season. 

The NYFCC had some surprising choices. The Immigrant won Best Actress (Marion Cotilard) and Cinematography. This is a movie that has not had much buzz and seemed to come out of no where. Also with a stacked Best Actor race they went with the not much talked about Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner. The went with Boyhood for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actress. Which pushed it into frontrunner status. But last year the picked American Hustle which went on to win nothing at the Oscars. 

The Gotham awards are interesting but because they are strictly independent films it can give a movie some buzz but because the competition is limited it is hard to use it as a predictor for the Oscars. That being said Birdman beat Boyhood and it does feel like those two will be battling it out the rest of Oscar season. But other movies could jump in there. In my opinion the movie that is the most likely to threaten them is Selma.  

For me the National Board of Review is the most interesting. They don't have a great track record of predicting Oscar best picture (last year they picked Her) and they do tend to include more popular movies (Harry Potter and Star Trek have been in their top 10 in past years), but because the announce 10 movies it gives us a good glimpse of the movies we will be talking about for the next couple of months.  And this year they surprised everyone by naming The Most Violent Year pest picture and including The Lego Movie on their top 10.  So what does that mean.  I don't know. But after each announcement I had to update my list.  With everything in flux it could be an interesting Oscar season.  
  
My predictions below. 

My Predictions

Best Picture

Frontrunners

• Birdman
  
• Boyhood
  
• The Imitation Game
  
• Gone Girl
  

Possibilities

• A Most Violent Year
• The Theory of Everything
  
• Whiplash         
  
• Unbroken
  
• Selma  
  
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
  
• Interstellar
  
• Foxcatcher

Long Shots

• Inherent Vice
  
• St. Vincent
  
• Into the Woods
  
• American Sniper
  
• Fury
  
• Mr. Turner

• Best Director
  

Frontrunners 

• Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)
  
• Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

Possibilities 

• Angelina Jolie (Unbroken)
  
• Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
• J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year)

• David Fincher (Gone Girl)
  
• Ava DuVernay (Selma)
  
• Damien Chazelle (Whiplash)
• Bennet Miller (Foxcatcher)

Long Shots

• Christopher Nolan (Interstellar)
  
• James Marsh (The Theory of Everything)
  
• Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
  
• Rob Marshall (Into the Woods)
  
• Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice)
  
• Clint Eastwood (American Sniper)
  

Best Actor

Frontrunners 

• Michael Keaton (Birdman)
  
• Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
  
• Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)
  
• Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
  

Possibilities

• Miles Teller (Whiplash)
  
• Jack O’Connell (Unbroken)
• David Oyelowo (Selma)
• Bill Murray (St. Vincent)
  
• Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler)
  

Long Shots

• Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)
  
• Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
• Tom Hardy (Locke)

Best Actress

Frontrunners 

• Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
  
• Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl)
  
• Reese Witherspoon (Wild)

Possibilities

• Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything)
  
• Jennifer Aniston (Cake)
• Marrion Cotillard (The Imigrant)

Long Shots

• Emily Blunt (Into the Woods)
• Shailene Woodley (The Fault in Our Stars)

Best Supporting Actor

Frontrunners 

• Edward Norton (Birdman)
  
• Mark Ruffalo (Foxcather)
  
• J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
  

Possibilities

• Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
  
• Tom Wilkinson (Selma)
  
• Miyavi (Unbroken)

Long Shots

• Neil Patrick Harris (Gone Girl)

Best Supporting Actress

Frontrunners 

• Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
  
• Emma Stone (Birdman) 
  
• Carmen Ejogo (Selma)
  

Possibilities 

• Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game)
  
• Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year)

Long Shots

• Oprah Winfrey (Selma) 
  

Best Adapted Screenplay

Frontrunners 

• Gone Girl
  
• The Imitation Game
  

Possibilities

• Unbroken
  
• The Theory of Everything
• The Fault in our Stars
• Into the Woods
  

Long Shots

• Wild
  
• Inherent Vice 
• American Sniper 
  
• Still Alice

Best Original Screenplay

Frontrunners

• Wild
• Boyhood
  
• Birdman

Possibilities

• Interstellar
  
• Whiplash
  
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
  
• Nightcrawler
  
• Selma
  

Long Shot

• Fury
  
• The Lego Movie
• Mr. Turner
  

Best Animated Movie

Frontrunners

• Big Hero 6 
  
• The Lego Movie
  
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
  

Possibilities 

• The Boxtrolls
• The Book of Life
• Penguins of Madagascar

Long Shot

• Planes: Fire & Rescue